RBI revealed preference, intervention capacity, forward book overhang.
RBI's net short forward book ($104 bn) creating future dollar-buying obligation
RBI intervention fatigue — reserves burned $31.4 bn in 6 weeks
Fed easing under Warsh providing only partial INR relief
RBI won't hike to defend INR and tolerates 2.5-3.5% annual orderly depreciation.
"RBI won't hike" ignores political economy of imported inflation at 101 USD/INR.
CPI prints above 5.5% for 2 consecutive months.